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Posts Tagged ‘Baseball Betting’

Wasn’t it me that predicted that Twins manager Ron Gardenhire would be the first baseball manager to be shown the door in 2006? Yes I also think that Barry Bonds is being unfairly accused of using performance enhancing drugs? No Gardenhire is doing just fine these days as he and his troops prepare for a crucial three game set in the Twin Cities tonight.

Minnesota (59-41) has won 34 of 42 since June 8 to cut what was an 11-game deficit in the wild card to a half-game.

“We’re just playing really good baseball,” said manager Ron Gardenhire, whose team was 25-33 nearly seven weeks ago. “People keep talking about the streak we’re on, but streaks don’t last two months or a month and a half.”

The Twins caught the struggling Chicago White Sox, who have led the wild-card race for most of the season, by completing a three-game sweep with a 7-4 victory Wednesday. Minnesota and Chicago are right behind the New York Yankees, who open a three-game home set against Tampa Bay on Friday night.
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Now that we have put the Barry Bonds/ Babe Ruth blah, blah, blah to sleep, I think it’s time that we sat back and wagered a few bucks on our favorite MLB team. Parity is here and every one of the six divisions is up for grabs this year and handicapping these teams, takes patience and talent.

Let’s start with the glamour division and of course I am referring to the American League East where the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox have been trading punches since the opening week of April and George’s boys are now sitting in the penthouse.

Lurking down in the lobby are the Toronto Blue Jays who have fought off injuries to their starting pitching staff, with superb hitting and are 32-25 and are just three games back. Toronto has made it clear from the get go, that they will spend money during the season in order to contend.

In the AL Central my 9-1 betting bonanza and that would be the 2005 Chicago White Sox are scuffling a bit after a torrid start and presently trail the Motown Detroit Tigers. The Tigers began the first 50 games under Jim Leyland in spectacular fashion, but injuries are beginning to hit them, with the latest being to Pudge Rodriguez.

At 28-29 the Cleveland Indians will make a move at some point and placing a few bucks on them, could provide you with a nice return on your dollar. The AL West with Texas, Oakland, Seattle and Los Angeles is a crapshoot, with only 5.5 games separating the VIP section and the cheap seats. The first place Rangers incidentally are the only team in the West with a winning mark in games played within the division and against the powerful AL East and you cannot ignore that vital gambling statistic.

The New York Mets like their neighbors the Yankees like to throw the money around and they sit atop the NL East presently, but the Phillies and Braves can almost reach out and touch them. With 14 straight division titles, I certainly would think about a wagering a few bucks on them to win once again.
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A few years back we wrote an article on the importance of evaluating how teams hit left-handed and right-handed pitchers. In summary, we surmised it was important, yet keeping in perspective, we demonstrated how the numbers can be greatly affected by random chance. Hence we warned about becoming too dependant on deceptive statistics that are so often fools gold.

We have very similar thoughts about comparing ballpark statistics. There are some stadiums that could be classified as “pitchers’ ballparks” while others could reasonably be labeled more friendly to hitters.

Yet again, we have to give props to the four-letter evil empire ESPN. In their fantasy baseball section, they have a straight-forward “Park Factor” that compares that rate of stats at home versus the rate of stats on the road. A rate that is higher than 1.000 favors the hitter, with lower than 1.000 favoring the pitcher.

Still, statistical reliability would assume the quality of the opponent has been equal at home and on the road. Random chance indicates some teams will face or use a disproportionate number of aces and No. 2 starters in one location. This deviation is just one example.
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The good news for the LA Angels is that they are only four game back in the loss column in the wacky AL West. The bad news is that 2005 CY Young award winner Bartolo Colon is returning and has looked brutal in 2006.

In his third minor league rehabilitation start, Colon gave up six earned runs and nine hits against the Fresno Grizzlies. In three starts for the Angels this season, Colon is 0-2 with a 7.07 ERA and they are going to send down their best pitcher to accommodate him.

Jered Weaver, the Angels’ first-round draft pick in June 2004, reduced his ERA to 1.37 and became the second pitcher in franchise history to win his first four major league starts on Tuesday night. The other was Bo Belinsky, who won his first five starts in 1962 and finished his rookie season 10-11. Whether that’s enough to keep Weaver up in the bigs is another story. He has allowed just four earned runs, 16 hits and four walks in his 26 1-3 innings of work — and has received a total of 30 runs of support from his teammates.

The player who should be sent down is Weaver’s brother Jeff Weaver who is 3-9 with an embarrassing ERA of 6.15, but is earning $8.3 million.

The Angels are lucky to have Orlando Cabrera in the lineup as this guy has been incredible. Cabrera has reached base in 43 consecutive games without the benefit of a fielder’s choice, the longest current streak in baseball and longest in club history. He has hit safely in 27 of his last 31 contests and is 25-for-54 over his last 14 games, raising his average from .271 to .313.

When the LA Dodgers acquired Brad Penny a couple of years ago, much was expected of the hard throwing righthander, but some arm ailments affected him and he was just 7-9 in 2005. Already in 2006 he has equaled his 2005 total. Penny (7-1, 2.34 ERA) is 5-0 with a 2.03 ERA over seven starts since his lone loss of the season at Arizona on May 1. He also hasn’t allowed a home run in 10 outings since April 14.
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